NCAA Men's Basketball 2026 Tournament Predictions

This tournament prediction model is in active development and the methodology may continue to evolve throughout the season.

Model Assumption: Projections assume teams win games they're favored in and lose as underdogs (based on rating differential). No variance modeling. View detailed methodology ↓

NCAA Tournament Selection Projections

Resume Comparison

Methodology

How are these predictions generated?

A machine learning model trained on historical NCAA tournament selections (2022-2025) predicts tournament seeding based on each team's resume. The model learns what the selection committee values by studying past selections.

Projected Results:

Future games are projected by assuming the higher-rated team wins. This shows what would happen if all favorites win their remaining games.

Tournament Structure:

The NCAA Tournament has 68 teams: 37 at-large bids selected by the committee and 31 automatic bids for conference tournament champions. The First Four consists of 8 teams who play in play-in games before the main bracket begins.

What the model looks at:

Team Ranking: Overall strength based on game results
Quad Records: Wins and losses grouped by opponent quality (see below)
Strength of Schedule: How tough the opponents have been
Scoring Margin: Average point differential

What are Quad Records?

The selection committee groups games into four quadrants based on opponent ranking and game location. Road wins count more than home wins against the same opponent.

Quad 1: Home vs 1-30, Neutral vs 1-50, Away vs 1-75
Quad 2: Home vs 31-75, Neutral vs 51-100, Away vs 76-135
Quad 3: Home vs 76-160, Neutral vs 101-200, Away vs 136-240
Quad 4: Home vs 161+, Neutral vs 201+, Away vs 241+

Quad 1 wins are the most valuable. Losses to Quad 3/4 opponents ("bad losses") hurt the most. Note: The NCAA uses NET ratings for quadrant values; this model uses our own rankings.

Understanding Seeds:

Overall Seed: Ranking of all 68 tournament teams by resume strength (1 = best)
Tournament Seed (1-16): The seed line in the bracket (4 teams share each seed)
Overall seeds 1-4 get Tournament Seed 1, seeds 5-8 get Tournament Seed 2, etc.

Limitations:

Projections assume favorites always win - upsets will change results
Conference champions are projected based on best current seed in each conference
Early season predictions are less reliable due to limited games played

Model Training: After 2025 NCAA Tournament (using 2022-2025 data)